Author: Shustov B.M., Shugarov A.S. (INASAN)

Title: Development of a Dual-Mode Approach to Monitoring Potentially Hazardous Small Solar System Bodies

Abstracts: 

As part of an applied engineering and development project, INASAN carried out work focused on developing a dual-mode approach to monitoring small Solar System bodies (SSSBs). Specialists from SAO RAS, ISTP SB RAS, SAI MSU, Kuban State University, and other institutions were involved for expert consultations.

The work included elaboration of a two-mode detection strategy for SSSBs within the context of the prospective Milky Way project, along with proposals for suitable technical solutions and the integration of ground-based and space-based monitoring systems.

It has been shown that the primary threat in the coming decades is posed by relatively small (10–50 meter) SSSBs—mainly near-Earth objects (NEOs)—as they are much more likely to collide with Earth than larger bodies. However, such objects can only be detected during close approaches (within several million kilometers and over time scales of a few days). The Milky Way project introduces the concept of a “Near Detection Mode”, focused on discovering all objects of this size range, both in the night and daytime sky. Currently, no global system is capable of detecting such objects on a large scale (with >90% efficiency). For implementation in Russia, it is proposed to establish a network of four multi-aperture telescopes—two in each hemisphere—based on commercially available components.

In contrast, detection of larger objects has seen much greater progress, as such bodies can be observed and tracked from greater distances and over longer periods. Existing international systems (mainly large US telescopes) have already discovered over 40% of NEOs larger than 140 meters. Data on discovered NEOs, including potentially hazardous ones, are publicly available via international databases (MPC, CNEOS, NEODYS, and others), which are regularly updated. Russia’s current contribution to these efforts is minimal and needs to be significantly increased. However, from a practical standpoint, this is considered a secondary task. The Milky Way project therefore also introduces the concept of a “Far Detection Mode”, along with related technical proposals.

The presentation outlines the rationale behind the dual-mode approach, characteristics of the proposed technical instruments, and possible implementation strategies for such a system in Russia. The key conclusion is that under current conditions in Russia, a dual-mode system offers an optimal balance—being cost-effective (eliminating the need for numerous large, expensive telescopes) while addressing both primary and supplementary monitoring goals.